طلا پس از ثبت رکورد قیمت بالاتر از ۳٬۷۵۰ دلار، وارد فاز اصلاح جزئی شده است. بسیاری از معاملهگران قصد دارند بخشی از سودهای کسبشده را در این محدوده برداشت کنند. در این میان، تمرکز بازارها به شاخصهای PMI آمریکا و سخنرانی جروم پاول، رئیس فدرال رزرو، معطوف شده است.
در ادامه، دلایل احتمالی اصلاح قیمت، سطوح حمایتی و مقاومتی مهم، و چشمانداز کوتاهمدت طلا را بررسی میکنیم.
وضعیت کنونی بازار طلا
طلا در روزهای اخیر رکوردشکنی کرد و قیمت به سطوح بالای ۳٬۷۵۰ دلار رسید. اما به نظر میرسد بخشی از معاملهگران در این سطوح اقدام به برداشت سود کردهاند.
دلار آمریکا نیز در وضعیت تثبیت قرار دارد و محرکهای جدید ممکن است باعث نوسانات بیشتر شوند.
شاخص مقاومت نسبی (RSI) در نمودار روزانه وارد منطقه اشباع خرید شده و احتمال اصلاح قیمت را افزایش داده است.
عوامل تأثیرگذار پیش رو شاخصهای PMI و وضعیت اقتصاد آمریکا
شاخص PMI بخش تولید و خدمات آمریکا از آن جهت مهم است که سیگنالدهنده وضعیت فعالیت اقتصادی کلان است. اگر این شاخصها پایینتر از انتظار بیایند، ممکن است فشار بر دلار افزایش یابد و طلا بهعنوان دارایی امن مورد توجه بیشتری قرار گیرد.
سخنرانی جروم پاول
سخنرانی رئیس فدرال رزرو میتواند سرنوشت سیاست پولی آینده را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. اگر زبان او به سمت تسهیل پولی یا کاهش نرخ بهره متمایل باشد، این موضوع برای طلا مثبت خواهد بود.
فضا برای اصلاح قیمتی
با رسیدن به سطوح بالای قیمت، بسیاری از خریداران ممکن است از فرصت برای خروج جزئی استفاده کنند. اصلاح قیمت در این فاز طبیعی به نظر میرسد.
از سوی دیگر، اگر شرایط اقتصاد جهانی یا اظهارات فدرال رزرو، فضا را برای ادامه روند صعودی فراهم کند، طلا میتواند دوباره به جهت صعودی بازگردد.
تحلیل تکنیکال و سطوح کلیدی
در نمودار روزانه، RSI در منطقه اشباع خرید قرار دارد و این نشان از احتمال ورود به فاز اصلاح دارد.
اولین سطح حمایتی جدی در محدوده ۳٬۷۰۰ دلار است. اگر قیمت به زیر این محدوده بیاید، قیمت ۳٬۶۸۴ دلار (پایینترین قیمت روز گذشته) حمایت بعدی خواهد بود.
اگر اصلاح بیشتر شود، سطح روانی ۳٬۶۵۰ دلار میتواند بهعنوان نقطه بازگشت احتمالی خریداران مطرح شود.
از سوی مقابل، اگر قیمت بتواند محدوده ۳٬۷۵۰ دلار را در معاملات تعطیلات پشت سر بگذارد، امکان دارد موج جدیدی از رشد تا سطح ۳٬۸۰۰ دلار رخ دهد.
چشمانداز کوتاهمدت و توصیهها
بهاحتمال زیاد، طلا در کوتاهمدت وارد فاز اصلاح میشود تا از فشار خرید زیاد کاسته شود.
اما اگر دادههای اقتصادی ضعیفتر از انتظار عرضه شود یا پاول اظهارات حمایتی داشته باشد، طلا میتواند دوباره به روند صعودی بازگردد.
کسانی که موقعیت خرید دارند، میتوانند نقاط حمایتی را برای ورود مجدد یا افزایش حجم بررسی کنند.
برای ورود جدید بهتر است ابتدا منتظر تثبیت قیمت در سطوح حمایتی یا شکست مقاومتی باشی.
نوسانات اخیر طلا در بازار جهانی، بهطور مستقیم بر ارزش داراییهای فیزیکی همچون شمش طلا و نقره زیوتو تأثیر میگذارد.
وقتی قیمت جهانی طلا به محدودههای بالاتر میرسد، دارندگان شمشهای فیزیکی عملاً از رشد ارزش سرمایه خود بهرهمند میشوند. از سوی دیگر، دورههای اصلاح قیمتی میتواند فرصتی مناسب برای خریداران تازه باشد تا در قیمتهای جذابتر وارد شوند.
به همین دلیل، بسیاری از سرمایهگذاران حرفهای بخشی از پرتفوی خود را به خرید شمشهای فیزیکی اختصاص میدهند؛ چراکه علاوه بر مزیت امنیتی طلا بهعنوان دارایی امن، شمشهای زیوتو با استاندارد خلوص و کیفیت بالا، امکان نقدشوندگی سریع و نگهداری مطمئن را فراهم میکنند.
نتیجهگیری: اگرچه طلا در کوتاهمدت ممکن است دچار نوسان شود، اما در بلندمدت همچنان یکی از بهترین ابزارها برای حفظ ارزش دارایی محسوب میشود. کسانی که به دنبال سرمایهگذاری پایدار هستند، میتوانند با خرید شمشهای طلا و نقره زیوتو از این فرصتها بهره ببرند و همزمان امنیت و اطمینان خاطر بیشتری در بازار پرنوسان جهانی داشته باشند.
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